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In the first version of this year column bustsI gave you 10 players that I avoided at their ADP. Few things have changed to change my opinion about these players in the last three weeks. Marcell Ozuna is in good health, so I will remove it from the list, and Shohei Ohtani saw his ADP fall enough where he could not do it either. The same thing will probably happen to Mike Foltynewicz now that we know that he will not be ready for the opening day. But these seven players still belong firmly to the bust column:
Of course, looking at ADP is just a way to look for busts. The other is to look at consensual rankings. And there are seven players that I am convinced that the industry is too high on. Do not buy in hype because there is a serious busting potential:
The value of Puig increases considerably thanks to a new park and (hopefully) to a greater number of aspects. He has only had more than 500 appearances on the plates twice in his career. In 2014, he hit .296 with 16 homers in 148 games. In 2017, he hit .263 with 28 homers in 152 games. Although I certainly think that he could have a career year in Cincinnati, he is now classified as if it was what we expected, not a possibility.
There are two main reasons why Puig has not been able to accumulate regular playing time. One is his medical history, which is not terribly scary, but it is not nothing either. He ran out of time due to hamstrings, obliques and feet in the past. Of course, the second reason is more and more successful, namely his propensity to play in a manner that violates the unwritten rules of baseball. I especially like the way Puig plays, but there is more risk that he is put on a bench for not having been repulsed by a scorer or mailed by post than most players .
In 2018, Puig is ranked 99th in Roto with 23 circuits and 15 flights. His number of points and points produced was low because he had only 444 appearances. So it's easy to see how it justifies this ranking No. 63, it's exactly where our formula ranks Cody Bellinger, who hit .260 with 25 homers and 14 stolen bases. In fact, ATC projection is expecting an even better year.
If Puig gets 567 plate appearances as the projection model waits, Puig will probably end up among the top 70 players. But it will be because he has remained healthy and not a dozen players with better prospects. Given its history, it's not a bet I'm ready to make.
The 2018 season was an excellent illustration of the value of Nicholas Castellanos can be so hopefully. He has accumulated 678 appearances at the plate, benefited from a .361 BABIP and posted an online training rate, a hard-hit rate and a HR / FB rate above his career criteria. All this led to a fourth round end value according to our Rotisserie rating. This also led to an ADP in the seventh round, which I simply can not afford.
It's too difficult for me to see Castellanos being special in a category. He plays for a terrible tigers team, so it's hard to see him eclipsing 180 tracks plus RBI. His batting average is likely to drop 20 points from last year 's assisted BABIP count. He does not run at all and he has never hit more than 26 home runs.
This does not mean that Castellanos is bad or useless in Fantasy. It should be a help in four categories, even if it is not a big help. Again, this is another player that ATC projections love more than me. It is possible for him to bring in value at this price, but it seems much more likely that you are missing someone who does not need everything to succeed and who actually helps you win a league.
While the first two players on this list were players I liked or could afford at the right price, Josh Donaldson is the one that scares me to death. The 33-year-old has played 165 games in the last two seasons and seemed lost in 2018. Donaldson's excellent contact qualities appear to be deteriorating (69% record-breaking contact rate in 2018) and his line-ups have been poor. training have also disappeared in the last two seasons.
Now it is possible that Donaldson will rebound and stay healthy in 2019, but I would feel much better about this possibility if he was still in the American League and could be deployed regularly as a designated hitter. As it stands now, we have to rely on Donaldson to play 150 games as a full-time player in a park whose skills are worse than those of his former home country. There are definitely some benefits to be hoped that it will return to its 2017 level, but the risk of recession is huge at this price.
Wil Myers should be considered in this range only in the rotisserie leagues. That's because its flights are more valuable to Roto and that its taken in check does not hurt you as much. But even in this format, I would not want to use an eighth-round pick on it.
He is an average player with a history of injuries and has 20 goals to justify this ADP. Injuries really worry me now that the Padres to have Eric Hosmer and Manny Machadoand Myers will be forced to play every day in the outfield. In the best case, he surpasses this program by remaining healthy, continuing to run and leading many points behind Machado. Even in this scenario, it has only a small value for this ADP. The soil is much more dangerous.
Zach Wheeler found his form before the injury in 2018 and then again. He had a career best time of 3.31, largely thanks to increased speed and better control. For the first time in his career, he was less than three walks in nine innings, which earned him a WHIP of 1.12. But he also did so with a little luck, as indicated by his number 3.87 SIERA.
I consider Wheeler more like a three-man ERA with no elite in the sleeves nor in the catches. If the control numbers or data of the hit ball regress, it could really be in trouble. This is the type of launcher that I have the pleasure of writing in the two-digit tricks, not in the top 100 picks.
I have trouble separating myself Cole Hamels pitchers like Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta. In the past two seasons, he has earned a FIP of 4.54, 7.8 K / 9 and a slightly higher average of six innings per start. His ERA has been better than his peripherals, like Lester and Arrieta … and nobody seems to care.
The big difference seems to be that Hamels has been great in his last 11 starts in 2018 after being traded to cubs. He posted a time of 2.52 and withdrew nearly one batter per run. I'm just struggling to trust 11 starts in the last two seasons, especially for a 35-year-old pitcher. If I have to bet on an old pitcher still outperforming its peripherals, I would prefer to wait for another 50 selections and bet on Lester or Arrieta.
I guess we have reached the old part of the column. Ryan Braun is a 35 year old player who has not played more than 140 games since 2012. He has only reached 130 games on three occasions in six years. He has just published the lowest wOBA of his career and plays in a team with plenty of options to spell it.
Braun is working on a new approach, but you know what they say about old dogs and new rides. It's not even fair. If Braun did not have health problems, I could see a guy like him in a great composition with a new approach. But this is not the case here.
There is one point in the air currents where the soil does not matter because the cost is very low. Choose 150 is not this point. The ATC projection puts it at 0.263, with 20 circuits and 11 flights in 116 games. For Braun, this fits the fork well, but with his many injuries, he is far from the ground.