Bubble Watch: Why is your .500 team there … or outgoing?

Editor's Note: The NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch was updated during the games on Sunday, February 24th.

If Bubble Watch receives more than one question than another, it's the following:

"Why is my team in Bubble Watch not in place of Team X?" Here, Team X always refers, without fail, to a team with a score below .500 at stake in a major conference.

Let's be even more specific. For the moment, the following teams would all be in the tournament if the selection took place today, according to The last support of Joe Lunardi:

All of these teams have records under .500 in conference, and the pillars of Bubble Watch Minnesota and Clemson, perched on the Lunardi Cup line, are also under water in their league games. How's it going?

By "this", Bubble Watch is of course referring to a strong consensus between the creative minds and followers, a consensus claiming that the reputation of the slice obtained by teams under .500 is indeed one thing in 2019. Naturally, for all we know, the men's basketball committee could do something completely different.

Duly noted.

But if the consensus ends up having a foundation in reality, again, how is that going?

  • Michigan and Michigan State both have 2 seeds before their first match in the 2018-1920 duel on Sunday.

Whatever you do, do not say it's because of the new NCAA appraisal system, the .NET. This does not correspond to the story.

There was no net last year when Arizona State went 8-10 in a statistically weak Pac-12, lost in double digits in the first round of the conference tournament against a 16-14 year old Colorado team and still getting a global offer. There was no NET last year when the committee broke the record of 500 outstanding offers by giving five such invitations – to the Sun Devils, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama and Syracuse.

Now it seems that the entire tournament field could again be populated by at least five teams having lost more games than their wins during their championship seasons. From 1985 to 2017, we have never seen a group of more than three teams. If we see five or more for the second consecutive tournament, it will be officially a trend.

Here's how we project the bubble right now:

Offers of traditional leagues to "an offer": 23 teams
locks: 23 teams
The bubble: 32 teams for 22 places available
Should be in: 11 teams
Work to do: 21 teams

ACC | Big 12| Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SECOND | American | Other


locks: Virginia, duke, North Carolina, Louisville, State of Florida, Virginia Tech
Should be in: Syracuse
Work to do: NC State, Clemson

Should be in

Syracuse Orange

At a touching evening in Syracuse, the last thing you never think about is surely the profile of the tournament. The match that nevertheless took place will remain in the books as a defeat for Duke one night when Zion Williamson sitting with one knee sprained. Oshae Brissett, Tyus Battle and their teammates are now facing a short turnaround and another great opportunity, one that ACC offers in abundance in 2019. The Orange will play in North Carolina just 72 hours after the match against the Blue Devils. A Syracuse team seeded No. 8 or 9 may change position with a win at Chapel Hill and / or with a Carrier Dome vs. Virginia on March 4th. (Updated: February 23)

Work to do

NC State Wolfpack

Kevin Keatts' team has set up an extremely busy conference program, and now that his guys are playing against Clemson, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Syracuse and Duke in recent weeks, they are enjoying a well-deserved break. sorts. The match this weekend at Florida State will certainly not be a picnic, but aside from that, NC State has games against Boston College and Georgia Tech. Potential seed # 10 seems solid at 20-8 in total and at 8-7 in ACC. (Updated: February 24)

Clemson Tigers

The end of February is dedicated to risk management for Clemson. The Tigers will not make a great offer by beating Boston College at home (as did Brad Brownell's team on Saturday) or by winning their next game in Pittsburgh. Again, a team considered both a No. 12 seed or a "first of four players" can definitely reduce its bid probability with a defeat or, in particular, two in a sequence of this type. . Clemson is currently set to increase his Eagles and Panthers victories in preparation for the main draw: North Carolina will visit the Littlejohn Coliseum in March. Fighting the Tar Heels would give the Tigers a second victory in Quad 1 alongside their 59-51 win at home against Virginia Tech. (Update: February 23)

Big 12

locks: Kansas, Texas Tech, State of Iowa, Kansas State
Work to do: Baylor, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma

Work to do

Bear Baylor

Baylor refuses to be cataloged. First of all, there was the Bears' quick start 6-2 against Big 12, a game that few observers or top 25 sounders seemed to notice. Then there was the hobbled and short-handed section, in which King McClure and Makai Mason Baylor fell to 7-5 in conference. Now add another gap in this route. McClure still has not recovered from his knee problems, but Mason has now won wins at Iowa State and home against West Virginia. The win at Ames gave Baylor a yearlong win over ISU and, more importantly, the best Scott Drew team profile win. Maybe the # 8 seed dummy supports previously planned for this group was a bit low. (Update: February 23)

Texas Longhorns

One day before Texas speaks Oklahoma to Norman, the university announced that Kerwin Roach II had been suspended for an indefinite period due to an unspecified violation of the team rules. However, Roach traveled with the team and looked dismally the Longhorns sounding completely insane in the first half of what became a 69-67 loss against the Sooners. Shaka Smart's group appears in simulated media as a No. 9 seed. The team made a brisk comeback in the second half before pausing at OU, and the Horns of course have some nice entries in their profile, including the neutral ground win over North Carolina and the home wins against Purdue and Kansas. That said, the Texas-free Roach version had a tough first 20 minutes and the Austin chart is less clear than it was when the training was at full throttle. (Update: February 23)

Horned frogs TCU

The two victories of the TCU Quad 1 this season were won against Iowa State, the latest being the Horned Frogs' 75-72 win over the Cyclones at Fort Worth. Jamie Dixon's team is considered a No. 10 seed, although in most years a 6-8 record in conference play at the end of February would be a concern at the end of February. less modest. After all, no team that has finished more than two games under the .500 mark in a major event has won a general bid since 1998. In addition, the Big 12 distributes bad conference records to more than an ambitious hope in 2019, and the TCU NET ranking was a very respectable No. 41 in the reversal against ISU. The final result of the conference may not be good for the Frogs, but this team and its two victories in Quad 1 seem more and more comfortable in the slice. (Update: February 23)

Oklahoma Sooners

Do not be fooled by Big 9's Big 9: Oklahoma is perhaps the strongest way to access an outstanding offer from all teams from 5 to 9 in history. Start with the fact that the Sooners are projected as a seed number 10, a few lines above the real danger and suspense. This is partly due to good fortune: the victories of the OU on Wofford (home) and on Florida (on neutral ground) have served Lon Kruger's team well throughout the season. Speaking of good fortune, Kerwin Roach II missed the match in which Texas lost two points against Oklahoma to Norman and this match counts as a win "we'll take" the Quad 2 for the Sooners. Finally, OU spoke on Saturday posting a higher NET ranking than a safe bet from the tournament like Syracuse. Mark Twain said that Wagner's music is better than its sound. The general reputation of Oklahoma is a bit the same. (Update: February 23)

Big East

Lock: Marquette
Should be in: Villanova, St. John's
Work to do: Seton Hall, butler

Should be in

Villanova Wildcats

Villanova has been to a victory to be a lock for almost two weeks, and unless it's in extraordinary circumstances, the Wildcats will still participate in the NCAA Tournament. However, after losing three straight games and four of his last five games, Jay Wright's team is no longer as good as the top four list that we were looking at just a few weeks ago. Instead, Nova is at best a seed number 6, and maybe even lower. In their last five games, the Wildcats, historically oriented perimeter, have only shot 30% of their 3. (Update: February 24th)

St. John's Red Storm

By winning the 78-70 win against Seton Hall at Madison Square Garden, Chris Mullin's men faced off against their last high-quality opponent of the regular season. The Johnnies will now end with two games against Xavier and one against DePaul. If you've followed St. John's this season thanks to highs (3-1 record against Marquette and Villanova) and lows (swept by Providence), you're ready for this team to lose out. one of the last three games. It would not be a disaster (well, the home game against the Musketeers is the Quad 3 and the other two are the Quad 2), and more precisely, that alone would not change what looks more like more to the destiny of SJU. This team seems to be heading towards something in the region of a seed number 8. (Update: February 23)

Work to do

Pirates of Seton Hall

Despite their defeat in St. John's, the Pirates should do without paper. There is always Hall victory over Kentucky, of course, just as there is always victory on the road in Maryland. So, yes, Kevin Willard's team should be in shape as a No. 11 seed. Stay calm, optimistic! … But for you, pessimistic, here is the problem: the remaining matches of Seton Hall are in Georgetown and home against Marquette and Villanova. Is it really so unthinkable that the Pirates (currently 16 against 11 and 7 to 8 in the East) can lose two or, dare you say, Bubble Watch, the three? This glass could be half empty after all. (Update: February 23)

Butler Bulldogs

The good news for the Bulldogs is that their victory over neutral ground against Florida is much better these days. The bad news, of course, is that Butler must be playing a situation in which beating the Gators will count for something. The LaVall Jordan team will feature in the "Top Four" and, although 6-8 at the Big East, a close to .500 finish in the conference seems feasible given the remaining schedule (two games against Providence, at Villanova and at home against Xavier). Let's say, in a case close to the best of times, Butler finishes 9-9 in the Big East with a win over Villanova and a total of 13-13. Will that suffice? It is possible that the Bulldogs are part of these teams who will participate in their conference tournaments with a lot of work. (Update: February 20)

Big Ten

locks: Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue Wisconsin, Maryland
Should be in: Iowa
Work to do: State of Ohio, Minnesota

Should be in

Hawkeyes from Iowa

In what may very well be a final entry to the Hawkeyes before they go into lockdown, allow Bubble Watch to thank Fran McCaffery's men wholeheartedly. Overtime takes it home Indiana marks a fourth, rather incredible, consecutive game that returned to the final possession of the 40th minute. The entertainment value of Iowa in February is unparalleled and Bubble Watch is a strong supporter of entertainment value. It is likely that all of the above will result in a seed # 6 or 7 for the Hawkeyes. (Update: February 22nd)

Work to do

Buckeyes State of Ohio

In its last four games, Ohio State will have three opportunities to break what has now become a rather noticeable series. The Buckeyes have not won a match against a general caliber opponent for nearly three months. Of course, the committee does not care about beating the teams, so the November win in Cincinnati in particular always does a good job on the OSU profile. Add the fact that the team sheet is more impressed by the victories on the road at Creighton, Nebraska and Indiana (all victories in Quad 1) than the layman could be and the team of Chris Holtmann still appears in parentheses as No. 9 seed. Imposing on this spot might require only one win in the remaining home games against Iowa and Wisconsin and on the road against Purdue. (Update: February 23)

Golden Gophers of Minnesota

Minnesota were a member in good standing of Lunardi's "last four players" club when the Golden Gophers left and lost 68-64 to Rutgers. We have seen worst defeats from "hard-working" members (sometimes ask Arizona State for its home game against Washington State); but no, suffering a defeat of the Quad 2 at the end of February without any margin of error is not what 's better. The setback puts Richard Pitino's team down to 17-11 overall and 7-10 in the Big Ten. Yes, the decisive victory in Wisconsin is still there, but it sinks a little less under the weight of six defeats only this month. The good news? The Pitino guys will probably be able to qualify for the tournament again. They end with road dates in Northwestern and Maryland and a home match against Purdue. (Update: February 24th)


Should be in: Washington
Work to do: State of Arizona

Should be in

Washington Huskies

Mike Hopkins' men are likely to reach the squad on Sunday, earning a victory on the road in Oregon. It may not look particularly impressive, but it's actually the best team team in the Pac-12 with a nice margin, a record that could beat the WL record in conference (the Huskies currently have a record of 13-1). All of the above might well result in a seed in the middle of the fork and, therefore, a match against a very high seed in the 32nd. (Update: February 23)

Work to do

Arizona State Sun Devils

The Sun Devils would probably win 11th place if the selection took place today. In the absence of the most extreme chain of victories or defeats in the rare arid Quad 1 Savannah, known as Pac-12, the ASU could remain in this state of sparkling uncertainty in the foreseeable future. Admittedly, the next road match in Oregon would actually qualify as Quad 1 to date. (Hardly.) Nevertheless, the State of Arizona has already done its best work under this heading, having won at home against Kansas and Washington and in Las Vegas against the states of Mississippi and Utah. (Update: February 24th)


locks: Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU
Should be in: State of Mississippi, Auburn, Ole Miss
Work to do: Florida, Alabama

Should be in

Mississippi Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are now playing to improve what should be a No. 6 or 7 seed, and the rest of the season can be sharply divided into two. On one side, there will be matches "take care of business" in Starkville against Missouri and Texas A & M. On the other hand, there will be competitions "raising our seed" on the road against Auburn and Tennessee. Taking care of business comes first and MSU enters its home match against the Tigers with the Bulldogs attack in top form. In this series of four consecutive wins, Ben Howland's team scored 1.13 points per possession. (Update: February 23)

Auburn Tigers

The shot on the Tigers is that they are an effective and well liked group of the NET (which entered the match in Kentucky and it occupies the 20th place), but that in fact, Auburn does not beat any good team. Needless to say, losing 27 points against the Wildcats at the Rupp Arena did nothing to refute this school of thought. The men of Bruce Pearl are now only 2 to 6 against the SEC opponents listed as locks, welfare or work-to-dos by Bubble Watch, and the victories were won at home against Alabama and Florida. The AU is seeded number 8, and with three chances in Quad 1 remaining, there is still a chance for this team to improve its position in the category and, yes, to shake "all statistics, no statements ". reputation. (Update: February 23)

Ole Miss Rebels

Georgia Tyree Crump missed a 3 on the ring and Ole Miss escaped with a 72-71 win at home. After a 79-64 loss to South Carolina, this surprisingly close surprise marked the second game in a row where the Rebels seemed less daunting. Kermit Davis and his men are now among the eighth seeded as they prepare to host Tennessee. Look at the painting in this first of two huge upcoming opportunities for Ole Miss in Quad 1. The Rebels play the best inside D of any non-named Kentucky SEC team, while the Volunteers are 2-point masters. Speaking of the UK, the Wildcats will also be coming to Oxford for this final game. (Update: February 23)

Work to do

Florida Gators

Especially after a much less impressive performance in a four-point home win against Missouri, it's hard to overstate the importance of the previous 82-77 Florida win with LSU. The Gators entered the game as No. 12 seeds and their best victories to date were their victories on the road against Arkansas and Alabama. They now have an iconic victory to present to the committee. No, this game will not solve all the profile problems (ask Alabama more and more about its iconic victory over Kentucky). Nevertheless, the seed planned by UF is expected to reach No. 10, and the situation in Gainesville is much brighter than in early February. (Update: February 23)

Scarlet tide of Alabama

Before taking care of Vanderbilt 68-61 at home, Alabama was ranked by Lunardi among the last four teams in the field. Of course, The Crimson Tide has the massive and extremely important home win against Kentucky, as well as an additional victory over Quad 1 on the Mississippi State (also in Tuscaloosa). When you are one of the last four teams on the field and you have four games left in the regular season, no need to think of anything else. Avery Johnson's men finish with a road match in South Carolina, home games against LSU and Auburn and a final away game in Arkansas. With the exception of the game against the Gamecocks, these are all Quad 1 opportunities. (The visit to Fayetteville hardly makes the difference.) Win even one of the two games against LSU and Auburn and that could to be sufficient for an offer. (Update: February 23)


locks: Houston, Cincinnati
Work to do: UCF Temple

Work to do

UCF Knights

UCF presents us with what could be the "win and you are" scenario the cleanest and most convincing of the bubble. Here's the data: The Knights are likely just in the lead as No. 11 seed or even No. 12, despite the fact that Johnny Dawkins' team is still looking for his first win in Quad 1 of the season. . Now, however, UCF is about to close the season with only opportunities in Quad 1. The Knights finish with games in South Florida (just Quad 1), Houston, home versus Cincinnati and Temple. Dawkins and his team will have the opportunity to make their case before the committee in a convincing way. (Update: February 24th)

Temple owls

Temple entered his home match against Tulsa, ranked by Lunardi among the last four teams on the field, and Owls emerged with a win of 84-73. The team that left Houston their only loss of the season will continue to pay big dividends to Fran Dunphy's men, who can further improve their chances with a win against Memphis in their next game. Playing the Tigers on the road is the last opportunity of Temple in Quad 1 of the regular season. (Updated: February 23)


Lock: Gonzaga, Nevada
Should be in: Buffalo, Wofford
Work to do: VCU, State of Utah, Belmont, Davidson, Furman, Lipscomb

Should be in

Buffalo bulls

Congratulations, Bulls. You sailed on what seemed like a difficult two-part road swing on paper and you came out brilliantly. The victories at Akron and Toledo mean that the Nate Oats team has a realistic chance of defeating the rest of the way. Running at the table would give Buffalo a 16-2 record in the MAC, but even giving up a game en route, as UB had already done in Northern Illinois and Bowling Green, would not destroy a profile that would would include a victory in Syracuse. UB seems to be heading towards something in the vicinity of a seed number 7. (Update: February 19)

Wofford Terriers

The Southern Conference has never sent an extraordinary team to the NCAA tournament, but there is a first time for everything. Wofford is in this discussion because the Terriers are 24-4, with losses coming from North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas and the state of Mississippi. Mike Young's team also has wins in Quad 1 at Furman, UNC Greensboro and East Tennessee State. Finally, it should be noted that Wofford has won 20 points in South Carolina, although it shows on the profile of a victory in Quad2. (Update: February 23)

Work to do

VCU Rams

At 21-6 in total and in sole possession of Atlantic 10 's top spot, Mike Rhoades' team has a No. 11 seeded team to wait until next month if the We want to rely on fictional brackets. Of course, we can not necessarily rely on dummy media in February. Nevertheless, if VCU has a plausible method to make these projections concrete, it is the defense. In the Rams' 85-57 win at home against GW, Marcus Evans & Co. scored 21-0 in the second half while the Colonials were aimless for more than 10 minutes. This is the kind of performance that can win big even in the absence of Quad opportunities 1. Keep winning, Rams. (Update: February 23)

State of Utah Aggies

The state of Utah may have seen his life in general unfold before his eyes, but Sam Merrill hit five and scored 32 points while the Aggies won 78-71 in overtime at Boise State. A defeat at Quad 3 would have been a defeat – not fatal in itself, perhaps, but far from ideal at the end of February for a team trying to make its way into the slice. Craig Smith's men now have a home game against the state of San Diego before welcoming Nevada to Logan for a basketball night likely to turn the profile. Despite a Quad 1 win on a neutral ground against Saint Mary's, USU is generally referred to as "first of the first four" in fictional media. (Update: February 23rd)

Belmont Bruins

Belmont won a game at Pauley Pavilion against UCLA in December, but (Westwood fans will want to stop reading here) it's the fact that Rick Byrd's team has swept a round-trip series without a conference with his local rival Lipscomb, who really lights up a team. leaf in 2019. Now the Nashville Bruins are competing with Ja Morant and Murray State for the supremacy of the Ohio Valley Conference. Morant probably has the OVC player of the year locked up (Bubble Watch is on a branch here), but in any other season, voters would take a very long look at Dylan Windler and his prolific but very effective score as stretch-4. Belmont is one of the last teams or hides just off the field in most screenings, but at 22-4, the Byrd guys have won 11 in a row and are looking to qualify.. (Update: February 23)

Davidson Wildcats

The Wildcats are still alive in this discussion after taking care of Rhode Island 75-66 on the road, a win that leaves Bob McKillop's men 20-7 overall and 11-3 in Atlantic 10 play. In addition, beating VCU at home in January will continue to look good on the profile, and Davidson has a reasonable chance of winning. But will an A-10 team be able to win an auction without a Quad 1 victory on the profile? This can indeed be the case test. It seems the Wildcats will not get another shot in a Quad 1 victory until a possible second game against Virginia Commonwealth in the A-10 tournament. That's fine, but it also seems like such a match will take place in the title game. Lose it and the question "No Quad 1 wins" always applies. Win and the question is not applicable. (Update: February 24th).

Furman Paladins
That's the mark of the strength of the South Conference in 2019 that Furman can lose at home 72-64 against Wofford and still be very active for a block bid. No, the Paladins are not ready yet to play but Bob Richey's group has this memorable victory of Quad 1 in Villanova, and the Dins could be helped by the powerful SoCon in another way. The Terriers' loss leaves Furman in the conference title race to such an extent that it's conceivable that the Richey guys could see Wofford in the league tournament before the title game. A third game against the Terriers on neutral ground in Asheville, North Carolina, would be a Quad 1 opportunity. (Update: February 23)

Comb bison
Before last week, the Bisons' worst defeat had been recorded at Belvedere compatriot Bubble Watch, which meant it was not such a bad defeat. Unfortunately for Casey Alexander's team, this is no longer the case. Lipscomb left on the road and lost 67 to 61 on the Gulf Coast of Florida. The Eagles took part in the competition at 244th place, making it a Quads 4 defeat for the Bisons. This is a heavy blow to Lipscomb's hopes. (Update: February 24th)

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