Welcome to this new day at Bubble Watch.
As you know, the NCAA has adopted its new evaluation tool, the NET. Taking a page from the same book, Bubble Watch Mission Control White Coat technicians have implemented two major improvements to turbocharging your obsessed media.
The first and most important, Bubble Watch, will be "live" from now until Sunday of the selection. No, wait, live this!
When the profile of a team of bubbles changes significantly, its entry will be updated quickly. Which means you can land on this page anytime from now until the Show Selection and have the most recent and optimal information available on the entire bubble.
(We're doing it because we're so obsessed.)
The Bulldogs have won 12 straight victories and have joined Duke, Virginia and Tennessee as No. 1 seeds for Joe Lunardi.
Too many potential teams of tournaments have less than .500 in conference.
Indiana's victory at Michigan State can be a springboard for the tournament, and other hoops of fashionable college kids that I can prove.
Second, Bubble Watch 2019 will build on the most valuable analytical work on an extremely slippery but fundamentally crucial issue. If we talk about bubble without stop at this time of the year, it is useful to know precisely how many teams compete for the number of places.
No, we do not see the future (for now, the work continues on a flux capacitor) and, of course, the thieves of submissions arrive at the time of the tournament (last year, there were two : San Diego State and Davidson). Again, having analyzed 337 conference tournaments in the last 11 yearsAt Bubble Watch, we are ready to project the size of the bubble of 2019. This projection will always be available at the top of Bubble Watch.
So before diving, here are some reminders about the phrasing. …
The locks are teams that will participate in the NCAA Tournament, one point is everything. A lock has never been unlocked. Why, it would be like, say, a No. 16 seed beating a seed No. 1.
Well, it has happened, but your trusty Bubble Watch locking system remains undefeated and will remain so until it is not.
"Should be in" means that the team would be in the tournament, no problem, so today was Sunday's Selection and that the NCAA Men's Basketball Committee was not out of control .
"Work to do" means that the team is clearly in the conversation but can not take an offer for granted based on the work done to date.
Finally, always remember that teams enter and leave the discussion. The bubble is fluid, and one of the most exciting moments in a coach's career is when, shortly after his team's great victory until then invisible to Bubble-Watch, John Gasaway on Twitter "Welcome to the bubble". Chills!
Good, enough housekeeping. This is how we project the bubble right now …
Offers of traditional leagues to "an offer": 23 teams
locks: 10 teams
The bubble: 41 teams for 35 places available
Should be in: 21 teams
Work to do: 20 teams
Should be in
An ephemeral appearance under "should be in" is only one last pro forma check box for Cardinals in the process of obtaining full lock status. In the absence of a total collapse of Oklahoma-in-2018 (and even the Sooners have succeeded!), Nothing will remain Jordan Nwora and his companions of an elite seed.
See "Louisville" above, last check box, etc. Buzz Williams has apparently the biggest defense in the history of college basketball. We're good kids, but seriously, the Hokies' victory over the neutral floor against Purdue is getting better, day by day, offsetting at least some of that "lost at Penn State" thing.
FSU holds the wins on Purdue (home) and LSU (neutral) by a combined margin of four points, the keyword in this sentence being "own". The victories are in the books and Leonard Hamilton's team is about to embark on one of those calendar changes that involve all the sowing, which the CAC is doing so well. The fun starts right away with a road match in Syracuse. Talking about that …
The official currency of Syracuse in 2019 is "We won at Duke". It's a great motto (yes, yes, the Blue Devils have been missed, duly noted), a balance that will offset some demerits – like the four Orange defeats in Quads 2 and 3. Not to mention that little of it's noticeable. Bubble Watch teams have the chance of as many opportunities to come: Florida State (see previous point), Louisville, Duke and Virginia are all heading to the Carrier Dome in the coming weeks.
Work to do
Bubble Watch is not going to review the rubble of a 47-24 home defeat against Virginia Tech, which features "the mother of all extreme non-repeatable cases". Nevertheless, the highlight of this game is simply that it was a missed opportunity for a win in Quadrant 1. At present, NC State has only one of those of the season (at home against Auburn) although he plays in the Candyland Quad 1, known as ACC. The loss of extra time for Virginia in Raleigh in particular was, of course, a very big deal on the cost of the opportunity.
Should be in: Texas Tech, State of Iowa, State of Kansas, Oklahoma
Work to do: Baylor, Texas, TCU
Should be in
Another team of the top 20 NET moving towards the territory of the locks, observe something remarkable in the meantime. The NCAA's decision this season to reformat team sheets and refine game scores in each of the four quadrants is particularly telling for the Red Raiders. At the top of the Quad 1, for example, Texas Tech has a score of 0 to 5. Conversely, when playing the rest of the Quad 1, Jarrett Culver & Co. are undefeated, with wins over Nebraska (neutral ground), home against Kansas State and Texas.
Like Texas Tech, the ISU is a prime candidate to be considered a lock in the very near future. Unlike the Red Raiders, however, the Cyclones won when both teams met in Lubbock in January. That, with beating Kansas at Ames and this week's win in Oklahoma, is the best point in the summary for Marial Shayok, Tyrese Haliburton and their companions cloned.
The Wildcats have not lost a conference game since Dean Wade returned from his foot injury in early January. (Note the word "conference." "K-State" stumbled against the Texas A & M at College Station as part of the SEC / Big 12 Challenge, which is quite surprising.) 39, extend this series in the form of a house. match against Kansas. Winners or losers, the guys at Bruce Weber already have one of the league's most important victories with their 58-57 win at Iowa State in January.
Lon Kruger's team swept his seasons series with Oklahoma State and also beat the TCU at Norman. In the past, however, OR has recorded seven Big 12 losses. Fictional supporters are up to now indifferent and the Big 12 will certainly offer many "good wins" like the Sooners, going up to a match at home against Kansas in the last week of the season. That being said, Oklahoma will have to win some of these games at some point.
Work to do
Consider the Bears as an "aberrant job". Yes Makai Mason, King McClure and and Mark Vital Keep doing what they do (most of the time 3 and 3 and offensive signs, respectively), Baylor could see his seed projected to climb, quickly, from his current range of 9 to 10. S there has an explanation to why the co-leader of Big 12 does not get a more present support (or the top 25 of the Parlay Game), the defeats at Quad 4 against Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin certainly does not help things.
Put an asterisk on this record of 4-5 in Big 12, because the guys from Shaka Smart recorded a better margin of score per possession against the opponents of the conference compared to Kansas. Perimeter-oriented Longhorns are on horseback Kerwin Roach and the rim defense of Jaxson Hayes. This is a good combination on paper, a combination that, presumably, will result in more wins and a stronger parenthesis status than the current one in, but do not waste it ". UT.
The Horned Frogs are trying to overlap two increasingly divergent tracks. On one side, TCU is a solid medium seed in the mock-ups, with victories over Baylor, Texas and Florida to its credit. For its part, Jamie Dixon's team has just been totally hit by the aforementioned Bears in the rematch and has now lost five of its last eight games. One of these tracks will fall. Either the frogs will start to play better, or the bit "middle seed" will be a memory.
Should be in: Marquette, Villanova
Work to do: St. John's, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler
Should be in
The men of Milwaukee seem to be heading for their best seed since Buzz Williams took a team with Vander Blue and Davante Gardner of the 3rd row to the elite Elite 2013. In particular, the victories of Marquette in 2018-2019 showed a Strange tendency to look better with age, as defeated opponents such as Louisville, Kansas State, Wisconsin and Buffalo have traced upward trajectories as the season progressed.
Before starting to treat the Big East as their own toy, Phil Booth, Eric Paschall and their colleagues were perhaps best known for their loss to Furman and Penn. In net terms, these defeats are not as bad as you might think (they come under Quad 2, where they appear alongside Villanova's seven victories), but they are likely to cost the Wildcats dearly. In simple terms, the higher Nova ranks, the higher the qualitative contrast in the "losses" department, with the peer teams.
Work to do
After a defeat against Duke, Chris Mullin's team discovers what is, on paper, the best win on the NET of the 2019 Big East: Marquette, in Milwaukee. All of this is a reward and no risk for a group of St. John's who should be one of the last field teams according to Joe Lunardi. A win would also give the Storm a two-game sweep, with SJU's victory over the Golden Eagles, 20 points, New Year's Day in Queens, distinguishing itself as the best entry on the team's resume.
The positions in parentheses do not become more precarious than the one currently occupied by SHU. The Pirates are variously projected to be one of the last teams or one of the first teams, depending on your preferences in fake parentheses. You can watch the room and see a 4-6 Big East team that has lost six of its last eight. A connoisseur of the entire season, on the other hand, sees a group that also beat Kentucky on neutral ground and Maryland at College Park.
Bubble, your name is Big East. If St. John 's has barely gone in and Seton Hall could go one way or the other, well, Creighton is there with all of the above. It turns out that the Bluejays could have really used their victory against Marquette in this overtime game in Omaha, Nebraska, last month. Instead of, Markus Howard scored 53 points and CU took the defeat. Now, the remaining three opportunities for Creighton in Quad 1 in the regular season are played out. Two more are coming: Villanova and Seton Hall, both back in a row, both on the road.
The Bulldogs are hiding on the margins of the bubble debate. A two-point home counterattack against Seton Hall has at least put a cap on a series of three consecutive losses. That said, the BUs have already lost their home games against Marquette and Villanova. At 4-6 in the Big East and with games on the road in Georgetown and St. John's coming, the team at LaVall Jordan could really use a win or even better two.
Should be in
The Badgers beat Michigan, their victory on the road to Iowa constantly improving with age Ethan Happ and his fans are above .500 (5-4) in the Quad 1 games. In other words, no, you probably will not see Wisconsin in unclosed territory any longer.
Students close to the bubble are on the verge of getting the necessary clarity regarding the Terps. Admittedly, no one will miss a young losing team on the road to Michigan State and Wisconsin in the last two weeks. The 11-point loss against Illinois at Madison Square Garden was however a surprise. So where in the support should Bruno Fernando and Anthony Cowan to be split? The next four games will be eloquent, with upcoming tests in Nebraska, home against Purdue, and back-to-back road races in Michigan and Iowa.
Even in the case of the locks that have not lost many games, Iowa has one of the sweetest profiles ever. The "worst" defeat of this team is a defeat on the road in Minnesota. Otherwise, you are considering setbacks against Michigan State (twice), Purdue and Wisconsin. That's all. No matter the dubious defense, if Luka Garza continues to explode in the next big event Big Ten non-Happen, Iowa can win a very beautiful seed.
Work to do
The Gophers might be a No. 10 seed or so if the peloton was in square brackets today, and this win on the road in Wisconsin is a great token to have in your pocket. In addition, who knew that the victory of the neutral face Washington would be so beautiful? The team of Richard Pitino can now win successfully in his next two games. The Badgers come to Minneapolis for revenge, and Minnesota then moves to the state of Michigan.
This real victory on the road that OSU recorded in Cincinnati during its very first game of the season continues to bear fruit. However, if the Buckeyes have to stay "on" the field (the quotes indicate that there is no one on the field, we are in February), the team will likely have to go from 4-6 in the Big Ten to an arrival close to .500. This is not safe, with a closing schedule that includes road tests from Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland and Purdue, not to mention home games against Iowa and the United States. Wisconsin.
What should we do in Indiana now? The victories on Louisville, Marquette and especially Michigan State are beautiful on all resumes. At the same time, IU is 4-7 in the Big Ten, so the Hoosiers still need more wins to enter the tournament. How Juwan Morganl & # 39; shoulder? Will the 3 continue to fall, as they did in overtime at MSU? Indiana's prospects in general are based on such questions.
Should be in: Washington
Work to do: State of Arizona
Should be in
It turns out that early February is the crucial moment for the UW seeding profile. The Pac-12s do not offer a lot of opportunities to the Huskies in terms of opportunities for the Quad 1 and, in fact, the only two games of this type likely to happen are to come: Washington will play to Road games in Arizona and in the Arizona State. Two wins would raise defensive artist Matisse Thybulle and his teammates at 11-0 in the league, but aside from the most extreme series of wins or losses, it is possible that the Huskies are heading for a tight slash at a point around lines 7 or 8.
Work to do
For a second consecutive season, beating Kansas keeps ASU barely on the right side of the "entry / exit" line at the moment. Certainly, the Sun Devils have to their credit a neutral victory over the Mississippi. Yet, with all hope of Pac-12 bubble in 2019, the discussion boils down to whether and where you will have time to play Washington. The answer is hosting Arizona State UW this weekend. Go strong, Sun Devils.
Should be in
Take a step forward if you had planned during the pre-season that LSU would be tied for second place with Kentucky Lock, a match just behind Tennessee. Led by the Dangling Falcon Tremont Waters and Skylar Mays, this defense has seen a strong improvement from one year to another, a breakthrough that could lead to a top-six finish. Again, maybe this seed can also get better The next match of Will Wade's band is at Mississippi State. Not a bad opportunity Quad 1 there.
At the risk of exaggerating the drama of the moment, Ben Howland's tenure at Starkville is somehow built for this new series of games. Mississippi State is offered the luxury of home appointments against LSU and Kentucky. The news is already good for the Bulldogs, of course, with an impressive record of 6-2 Quad 1 to their credit. Still, the victories against the Tigers and Wildcats would be a huge step forward.
Auburn has more potential to recover from its current portion of the average seed of the slice than its record of 3-4 in SEC play might indicate. With the exception of an unbalanced defeat at Ole Miss in the first game of the conference, the Tigers have shown incredible talent for erupting victories and defeats. This trend certainly includes the 82-80 defeat of the UA at home against Kentucky in January. Do not make mistakes, Bryce Brown and Jared Harper can score points in a hurry.
Work to do
The rebels demonstrate how the persistence of vision is manifested in the selection of tournaments. Ole Miss has lost four straight and five of her last six outings, but a good job in November (Baylor's neutral win) and especially in early January (beating Auburn in Oxford and Mississippi State in Starkville) remains , for the time being, Terence Davis & Co. in the planned single-seeded area. Barely.
Welcome to the most precarious areas of the championship. Indeed, if the Sunday selection was held today, Alabama would be one of those teams "could go both ways. Beat Kentucky in Tuscaloosa is a good start for any resume, certainly, but it's a bit of a goal. Avery Johnson's men have more to show except a home win against the state of Mississippi. If they did, Crimson Tide's position would not be so precarious.
Speaking of could go both ways, the Gators are there with the tide. Florida's win in Arkansas is the only victory of Quad 1. Again, the SEC this season offers many chances to improve its profile. For UF, these chances will take the form of games against Tennessee, Kentucky and Auburn – all on the road – as well as two shots against LSU.
Should be in: Houston, Cincinnati
Work to do: UCF Temple
Should be in
Teams made up of 21 to 21 year olds generally do not stay in the "should be in" zip code well before moving to the more expensive area of locks. This is perhaps the only opportunity for Bubble Watch to pay tribute to the Cougars, who have been able to meet all their expectations and have stayed as good as they were last season despite the loss of two starters. Armoni Brooks and Corey Davis have been outstanding, and it is likely that we will hear Houston's name among the top 16 teams in the field projected in the NCAA slice preview this weekend.
For a team projected to land in the middle of the range, the Cincinnati Seed shows significant volatility potential. Start with the fact that the Bearcats have played only three games in Quad 1 (all season) (2 to 1), add one of those unsightly defeats to Quad 4 (in East Carolina) and then add the coup de grace to the variability. The UC gets five chances in Quad 1 in its last nine games, including two shots in Houston. This seed seeded No. 7 could jump or fall significantly. Stay tuned.
Work to do
Keep it simple: UCF has the best opponent of America, Houston, home this week. The game suggests an area where the prospects of the Knights Tournament will be established or wiped out. At the moment, Johnny Dawkins' team is among the last teams on the field, but two games to play against the Cougars and two others against Cincinnati can radically change this position in both directions.
That "1" in the 21-1 record of Houston belongs of course to the Owls, who eliminated the group of Kelvin Sampson during the visit of the Cougars in Philadelphia at the beginning of January. Speaking of "1", well, Temple is 1-5 in its Quad 1 outings. It's a nice win, but, in itself, that might not be enough for this team to be on the ground. The Owls may have taken a break by winning three games ahead against USF, Memphis and UConn. The combination of the opponent and the place means that each of these games can hardly be the subject of a Quad 1.
Should be in: Nevada, Buffalo
Work to do: Compliance Undertaking, San Francisco, Utah State
Should be in
Eric Musselman has attacked his Pac-12 opponents by setting his schedule for 2018-19 and, well, this league is not having its best season. The decline of what was supposed to be the major opponent of the conference explains how Nevada is currently screened as a No. 4 seed with a 21-1 record. This also explains the fact that the Musselman team has still not played a Quad 1 match this season. This will finally change when the Wolf Pack will visit the state of Utah early next month.
This is the mark of UB head coach Nate Oats proving that we are talking about a MAC team with defeats on the road at Bowling Green and in northern Illinois "should to be "in terms. Well Named. Life on the road in the MAC is tough in 2019 and, in any case, there is very little about the general record of the Bulls 19-3 with their victories on the road at West Virginia and Syracuse.
Work to do
The Rams won Texas one point in early December and there is no opportunity left for the Atlantic 10 Schedule Quad 1 for Mike Rhoades' team. Who knows, an absolute A-10 regular season title might be enough for a global bid (in case of defeat in the conference tournament). Anyway, if VCU participates in the tournament, the spectators and especially the opponents will face a formidable defense.
We have already seen this drama before, but it is usually Saint Mary's who plays the lead role. A West Coast Conference team is trying to win at least one of its shots against Gonzaga and not lose any other league games. It turns out that San Francisco has already fallen at home by 13 in front of the Bulldogs in a much tighter match than his score suggests. Then, the Donations lost two consecutive games in San Diego and SMC. It is possible that the Gaels eventually take over this role in 2019 after all.
Sam Merrill and his teammates spent most of January battling Mountain Mountain's lower division. (Of course, Utah State has won in New Mexico, which Nevada can not claim.) Now the situation is about to become more difficult for Craig Smith's group. An upcoming road test at Fresno State is the next, a match that could give the Aggies their best preparation before the potentially crucial home match against the Wolf Pack next month.